2022年房地产十大趋势预测
<section data-role="paragraph"><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">2021年，在房地产行业面临市场下行、监管持续加强的情况下，地产行业迅速由高速增长的“白金时代”转换成“青铜时代”。</span></p></section><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">开年以来，地方“两会”陆续召开。查看各地新一年的政府工作报告，不难发现，与地产相关的部分政策导向还是十分明显的。</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">继续强调“房住不炒”、加强保障性住房建设工作、促进房地产良性循环、稳妥处置房地产领域风险，从政策大方向来说：</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 112, 192);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 112, 192);font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">房住不炒已是板上钉钉，剥离房子的投资属性，回归居住属性已是市场共识！</span></strong></span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">2022年或将成为行业与周期重启的一年</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">，2022年的变化将是剧烈的、动荡的，疫情尚未平息，乌俄大战仍在持续，在复杂严峻的国际形势下，新的趋势会随之而来，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">在面临波澜壮阔的时代浪潮之中，勇立潮头，坚定向前。</span></p><p></p><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">在这关键一年，行业规模将如何表现？重点22城集中供地会有哪些变数，土地市场将何去何从？城市分化加剧，如何做好投资？2022年，行业规模、政策、地市、企业等方方面面都会发生很多可能性，丁祖昱基于大数据分析和市场研判，预测了2022年房地产的十大趋势与变化。</span></p></section><section data-role="paragraph"></section><section data-role="paragraph" data-color="#0b79ff"><section data-support="96编辑器" data-style-id="27325" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgba(11, 121, 255, 0.75);display: inline-block;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="vertical-align: inherit;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">01</span></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;width: 10px;background: rgba(254, 254, 254, 0.996);transform: skew(-27deg);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></section><section style="margin-left: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="vertical-align: inherit;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">行业规模回到五年前</strong></span></p></section></section></section></section></section><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">房地产市场正在剧烈变化，行业在萎缩，市场分化越来越明显。据统计2021年，商品房销售面积17.9亿平方米，比上<span style="caret-color: red;">年增长1.9%；商品房销售额18.2万亿元，增长4.8%。</span></span></p><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></section><p style="text-align:right;vertical-align: inherit;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">数据来源：国家统计局</span></p></section><section data-role="paragraph" data-color="#0b79ff"><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">2015-2016年是房地产行业重要的转折点，商品住宅销售面积从2015年11.2亿平方米，跳涨至2016年13.8亿平方米，此后几年住宅销售面积一直维持在14-15亿平方米。</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 112, 192);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 112, 192);font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">预计未来5年行业年均规模将回归至10.6亿-12.7亿平方米，中位数是12亿平米左右，与2015年-2016年的水平基本相当。</span></strong></span></p></section><section data-role="paragraph" data-color="#0b79ff"><section data-support="96编辑器" data-style-id="27325" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgba(11, 121, 255, 0.75);display: inline-block;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="vertical-align: inherit;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">02</span></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;width: 10px;background: rgba(254, 254, 254, 0.996);transform: skew(-27deg);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></section><section style="margin-left: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="vertical-align: inherit;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">长效机制逐渐成闭环</strong></span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" data-color="#0b79ff"><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">2021年是中国房地产市场的政策大年，全年调控次数651次，创历史新高；截止2022年2月，全国累计房地产调控政策次数超80多次，超36城释放楼市宽松政策。从政策内容看，20</span><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">22年开年两个</span><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">多月来，房地产调控基本集中在稳定楼市，宽松政策为主。</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">从地方“两会”可以看出，“房住不炒”依然是楼市调控的主基调。自2016年底“房住不炒”这一概念在中央经济工作会议被首次提出后，已连续多年、多次在高层会议中被反复提及；而“十四五”规划纲要也再次强调了“坚持房子是用来住的、不是用来炒的”定位。今年不少省份的政府工作报告中，继续明确提出坚持“房住不炒”。</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">2022年2月住建部再次为2022年房地产发展定调。释放了四个关键信号：第一是精调控、第二是稳预期、第三是保交付、第四是护大盘。相关专家预测，</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 112, 192);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 112, 192);font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">2022年“房住不炒”定位不会改变，房地产政策调控不会大幅放松，保证政策调控的连续性和稳定性，但政策会基于市场环境进行适度、灵活地调整。</span></strong></span></p></section><section data-role="paragraph" data-color="#0b79ff"><section data-support="96编辑器" data-style-id="27325" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgba(11, 121, 255, 0.75);display: inline-block;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="vertical-align: inherit;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">03</span></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;width: 10px;background: rgba(254, 254, 254, 0.996);transform: skew(-27deg);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></section><section style="margin-left: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="vertical-align: inherit;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><strong>土地市场火热不在</strong></span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">2021年，土地市场经历了史无前例的大面积流拍，第二批集中供地平均成交率降为69%，综合溢价率降至4.0%，第三批集中供地基本靠国家队托底。</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">2022年房地产金融监管环境仍将从紧，企业“钱紧”现状短时间内难以缓解，虽然多个城市出现限价松绑，但房企经历过去一年的跌宕起伏，</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 112, 192);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">拿地态度将会更加谨慎，部分没有补货压力的房企会减少拿地或不拿地，寻求多元化发展，</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">且2022年将会出现大量收并购或项目合作机会，房企拿地意愿进一步降低，预计2022年土地市场将趋于萧条。</span></p></section><section data-support="96编辑器" data-style-id="27325" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgb(11, 121, 255);display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="vertical-align: inherit;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">04</span></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;width: 10px;background: rgba(254, 254, 254, 0.996);transform: skew(-27deg);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></section><section style="margin-left: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="vertical-align: inherit;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><strong>房价不涨成为趋势</strong></span></p></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">日前，住建部副部长倪虹再次重申，“2022年要毫不动摇地坚持房住不炒的定位，不把房地产作为短期刺激经济的工具和手段，因城施策促进房地产业良性循环和健康发展。”</span></p></section><p></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">通过克尔瑞数据显示，截止至2021年12月31日全国70个大中城市商品房销售均价已下降至9512元/平方米，环比再降0.9%，较2021年初1-2月下降14%，大部分城市都曾出现过房价下跌的情况。</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">坚持“房住不炒”主基调，“稳地价、稳房价、稳预期”的长效调控机制下，2022年房价不涨将成新常态。同时，对于很多普通三四线城市来说，人口和人才持续流出，棚改热度已经褪去，房企拿地重心重回一二线城市，热点城市还将面临一定的价格波动，但指望房价大幅反弹显然是不现实了。</span></p><p></p><section data-role="paragraph" data-color="#0b79ff"><section data-role="paragraph" data-color="#0b79ff"><section data-support="96编辑器" data-style-id="27325" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgba(11, 121, 255, 0.75);display: inline-block;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="vertical-align: inherit;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">05</span></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;width: 10px;background: rgba(254, 254, 254, 0.996);transform: skew(-27deg);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></section><section style="margin-left: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="vertical-align: inherit;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><strong>城市分化加剧</strong></span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">数据显示，近两个月房价涨幅TOP10基本被珠三角和长三角承包了。</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 112, 192);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">未来城市分化持续加剧，当前评判城市发展前景，除了人口、经济等硬实力外，还有部分软实力指标起到至关重要的作用。</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">对于城市选择，坚持长期聚焦人口基本面尚佳、经济基础良好、城市软实力较强的25个核心一二三线城市。<br/></span></p></section><p></p><blockquote><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">长三角：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">上海、杭州、南京、苏州、合肥、宁波、无锡、常州、温州</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">粤港澳大湾区：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">深圳、广州、佛山、珠海、东莞</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">京津冀：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">北京、天津</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">成渝城市群：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">成都、重庆</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">长江中下游城市群：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">武汉、长沙</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">关中城市群：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">西安</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">中原城市群：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">郑州</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">山东半岛：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">青岛、济南</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">海西城市群：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">厦门</span></p></blockquote><p></p><section data-role="paragraph" data-color="#0b79ff"><section data-role="paragraph" data-color="#0b79ff"><section data-support="96编辑器" data-style-id="27325" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgba(11, 121, 255, 0.75);display: inline-block;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="vertical-align: inherit;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">06</span></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;width: 10px;background: rgba(254, 254, 254, 0.996);transform: skew(-27deg);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></section><section style="margin-left: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="vertical-align: inherit;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><strong>房企“暴雷”不会停止</strong></span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">本轮房地产调控始于2020年，以金融管控为主线并且政策频出，影响深远，从“三道红线”和住房贷款集中度管理到“两集中供地”、二手房指导均价等政策不断推出，政策的不断深化使得国内不少房企出现资金链紧张、甚至资金链崩裂等情况，暴雷频频发生。</span></p></section><p></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">2022年整个行业步入无增长时代，负增长企业数量增加，融资受限的同时，面临较大的偿债压力，房企生存压力巨大。资金链紧张的情况下，行业“爆雷”事件仍将持续，而“爆雷”问题之后，企业公信力下降，进而影响整个行业健康发展与良性循环。</span></p><p></p><section data-support="96编辑器" data-style-id="27325" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgb(11, 121, 255);display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="vertical-align: inherit;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">07</span></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;width: 10px;background: rgba(254, 254, 254, 0.996);transform: skew(-27deg);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></section><section style="margin-left: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="vertical-align: inherit;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><strong>物业行业回归理性</strong></span></p></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">房地产与物业行业唇齿相依。2021年，受地产主业震荡的影响，物业行业迎来价值回归，尤其物业股迅速回调，资本市场回归理性，除个别央企、国企物业股企稳外，其余物业股大幅下挫，距高位跌破70%的物企比比皆是。</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">多支物业股的市盈率低于10倍，预计2022年行业平均市盈率为15.3倍，物业行业“走下神坛，回归理性”，未来继续“挤泡沫”。</span></p></section><section data-role="paragraph" data-color="#0b79ff"><section data-support="96编辑器" data-style-id="27325" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgba(11, 121, 255, 0.75);display: inline-block;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="vertical-align: inherit;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">08</span></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;width: 10px;background: rgba(254, 254, 254, 0.996);transform: skew(-27deg);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></section><section style="margin-left: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="vertical-align: inherit;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><strong>加大保障性租赁住房供给</strong></span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">从各地政府工作报告来看，2022年，保障性租赁住房建设也将是今年各地工作的着重发力点。浙江、山东、四川、安徽、河南、湖北、福建、陕西、辽宁、新疆、广西等地，均提出了2022年筹集建设保障性租赁住房的具体量化目标，并</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 112, 192);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 112, 192);font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">明确发展、规范长租房市场，让更多新市民、低收入群众住有所居。</span></strong></span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 112, 192);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 112, 192);font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">各地保障性租赁住房建设工作的持续推进，说明未来房地产行业的民生属性将进一步强化。</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">年初保租房不纳入房地产集中度管理，配套政策进一步完善，为十四五期间保租房任务完成保驾护航，多个政策内容将影响未来3-5年租赁行业的格局。</span></p></section><section data-role="paragraph" data-color="#0b79ff"><section data-support="96编辑器" data-style-id="27325" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgba(11, 121, 255, 0.75);display: inline-block;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="vertical-align: inherit;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">09</span></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;width: 10px;background: rgba(254, 254, 254, 0.996);transform: skew(-27deg);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></section><section style="margin-left: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="vertical-align: inherit;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><strong>养老需求持续爆发</strong></span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">自2022年开始，老年人口正式迈入以“60后”为代表的低龄老年群体规模式增长——未来五年新增1.18亿人（年均新增2360万人）。预测未来养老产业规模，2022年养老产业规模将达到9万亿元，2025与2030年将分别突破12万亿元和20万亿元。</span></p></section><p></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">按区域养老潜力来看，长三角区域作为养老潜力的风向标，遥遥领先，其次是京津地区、山东、广东潜力较为突出，而东北和西北较弱。</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">按城市来看，2021年中国典型城市养老潜力TOP20分别为：上海、北京、深圳、广州、南京、无锡、苏州、南通、天津、青岛、杭州、成都、武汉、常州、宁波、重庆、济南、厦门、扬州、大连。</span></p><p></p><section data-role="paragraph" data-color="#0b79ff"><section data-role="paragraph" data-color="#0b79ff"><section data-support="96编辑器" data-style-id="27325" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgba(11, 121, 255, 0.75);display: inline-block;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="vertical-align: inherit;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">10</span></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;width: 10px;background: rgba(254, 254, 254, 0.996);transform: skew(-27deg);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></section><section style="margin-left: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="vertical-align: inherit;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><strong>房地产业仍是压舱石</strong></span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">2022年1月17日，国家统计局公布了2021年国民经济运行情况以及房地产行业数据。2021年，国内GDP达1143670亿元，按不变价计算，同比增长8.1%。全国商品房销售面积17.9亿平方米，比上年增长1.9%；商品房销售额18.2万亿元，同比增长4.8%。展望后市，房地产行业仍旧是国民经济的压舱石，行业过大的波动也背离了政策追求“三稳”的目标，过紧的政策有望纠偏，对于2022年不必一味悲观。</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">按商品住宅总量未来五年年均规模10.6亿-12.7亿平方米计算，若房价增速维持5%，每年行业成交金额约在15万亿上下，相较于其他行业，房地产行业规模依然很大。</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></span></p><section data-role="title" data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="109625"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px auto;"><section style="display: inline-block;"><section style="background-color: rgb(0, 112, 192);padding: 5px 25px;border-radius: 30px;margin-top: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section data-brushtype="text" style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;color: #0070c0;" hm_fix="318:475"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Hiragino Sans GB, Apple Color Emoji, Emoji Symbols Font, Segoe UI Symbol, Arial, sans-serif;"><strong><span style="color: #ffffff;">总 结</span></strong></span></section></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="title" data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="109853" data-color="#0b79ff"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px auto;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: flex-end;"><section style="display:flex;justify-content: center;align-items: flex-start;transform-style: preserve-3d;"><section style="margin-top: 16px;margin-left: -10px;transform: translateZ(9px);"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 100%;height: 1px;background-image: linear-gradient(to right, rgb(102, 173, 255) 0%, rgb(255, 255, 255) 100%);background-position: initial;background-size: initial;background-repeat: initial;background-attachment: initial;background-origin: initial;background-clip: initial;overflow: hidden;transform: translate(-4px, -3px);max-width: 100% !important;" data-width="100%"><br/></section></section></section></section></section></section><p></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">危机必然会带来新的行业发展常态、新的竞争格局与增长模式。</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">这个时间点上，不是悲观抱怨的时候，也不是人云亦云的时候，更不是揪着过去不放的时候，而是正视改革、独立思考、布局准备的时候。</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 112, 192);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 112, 192);font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">地产行业在迭代，房企在变革，地产人也一样！</span></strong></span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">地产人需要做好充实的准备，让企业跟着地产时代一起前进，一并更新认知，才能在行业变革浪潮中走得更远，加油！</span></p><p></p><section data-role="paragraph"></section><section data-role="paragraph"><section class="mp_profile_iframe_wrp"><mpprofile class="js_uneditable custom_select_card mp_profile_iframe" data-pluginname="mpprofile" data-id="MzIyOTk2Mjk1Nw==" data-headimg="https://www.fqlook.cn/plugin.php?id=wcn_editor:wx_img&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/YCvl9QuHd1OLfPEjLOtGu6IffEYBqbE3z0mt8UMHktzRCpSDJnUHCpq6icpQs5Xj3JlhrS5gLq97vWKo6aXBFhg/0?wx_fmt=png" data-nickname="福州市房地产业协会" data-alias="fzsfdcyxh" data-signature="共同关注福州市房地产发展！" data-from="0"></mpprofile></section><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="outline: 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