当PPI突破10% 货币政策难放宽
<p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">当前我国货币政策面临的背景是，9月PPI增幅同比达到了10.7%，环比上涨了1.2百分点，突破了2008年的记录，创下历史新高；而2021年9月份的CPI同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月还回落0.1个百分点，连续4个月同比涨幅回落；环比涨幅比上月回落0.1个百分点。扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅与上月相同。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">我国CPI从今年5月份开始一路向下走，但是PPI却从去年低位反弹以来一路向上，喇叭口逐渐扩大，这是上游原材料涨价难以传导到下游消费物价的表现。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">这种价格结构最终反映在下游企业的利润缩窄，因为成本高企的同时，销售价格在下跌，收入就会减少，经营出现很大的困境。这也是疫情后我国经济目前发展的一个现象，中小企业的经营状况比较困难。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">那么PPI怎么会上涨得这么快？一个是国内决定的价格，比如煤炭、水泥等，主要由国内的因素决定。二是国际决定的价格，比如石油天然气和一些有色金属等。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">9月煤炭加工业价格环比上涨18.9%，煤炭开采和洗选业价格环比上涨12.1%，合计影响PPI环比上涨约0.50个百分点，是PPI环比上涨的主要贡献项目。煤炭的上涨主要是受在“能耗双控”和“限产限电”等政策影响，而水泥和部分有色金属是高能耗项目，也属于这种情况。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">能源危机席卷全球，主要是天然气引爆，接着传到到石油，而有色金属等大宗原材料今年已经间歇性上涨很高的幅度，主要是因为疫情影响，全球供应链断裂，欧洲激进抛弃传统能源，新能源不能完全替代，再加上受极端天气的影响。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">笔者认为，国内的煤炭价格上涨只是一个暂时性问题，表现在进口大幅攀升，而国内已经采取强有力措施加大煤炭生产增产，搞好运输，效果已经显现。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">海关总署10月13日公布的数据显示，2021年9月份，我国进口煤炭3288.3万吨，较去年同期的1867.6万吨增加1420.7万吨，增长76.07%。较8月份的2805.2万吨增加483.1万吨，增长17.22%。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">而今年2021年1-9月份，我国共进口煤炭23039.6万吨，同比下降3.6%，降幅较前8月收窄6.7个百分点。可见进口下降是煤炭供需失衡的一个原因。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">目前全国范围内的煤炭增产保产正在推进，10月13日，国家矿山安监局透露，已经审核976处煤矿。其中有153处煤矿符合安全保供条件，大约增加产能2.2亿吨/年，预计四季度可增加煤炭产量5500万吨，平均日增产达到60万吨。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">各地也已经行动起来，比如，10月10日，鄂尔多斯市40家煤炭企业与对口保供的黑龙江省、吉林省、辽宁省、天津市等18个省区市签订了5364万吨保供协议，积极保障能源供应；63家煤炭企业与呼和浩特市、包头市等6个区内盟市分别签订了四季度煤炭中长期保供合同；15家煤炭企业与鄂尔多斯市5个旗区分别签订了冬季取暖用煤保供协议。此次合同签订仪式共签订7706万吨的煤炭保供任务。产煤大声山西和陕西也有类似行动。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">俄罗斯与中国在用电和煤炭进口方面也有大动作。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">所以笔者判断，国内能够主导的原材料价格可能在近期会出现回调。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">但是国际能源危机可能暂时难以缓解，一方面疫情尚未出现减缓迹象，供应链的断裂短期恢复不了，经济还在持续复苏，对于能源的需求再增加。更加起主导因素的是，欧洲的冬天很快到来，今年冬季很冷，对能源的需求正在加快，所以国际大宗商品价格尤其是能源危机短期难以缓解。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">央行的货币政策在这种形势下，很难实行全面降准的政策，当然或者有小幅度的定向降准或者TMLF等政策推出的可能，但是以目前央行维持流动性合理充裕，货币政策稳健而言，可能还会继续观察一段时间。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">毕竟全球的货币政策大趋势是，美联储很可能在11月所见资产购买，其他许多发达经济体和新兴市场国家已经开启加息，这时候过分宽松的政策，无异于抱薪救火。</span></p><p><br/></p><p>来源：华夏时报</p><link rel="stylesheet" href="//www.fqlook.cn/source/plugin/wcn_editor/public/wcn_editor_fit.css?v134_ox4" id="wcn_editor_css"/>
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