梦洁妈咪0uk0 发表于 2021-9-30 16:35:53

限电、双控与低碳

<p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">近期,广东、江苏、云南、四川、内蒙、吉林等多省实施有序用电、临时停电、拉闸限电等限电措施。受此影响,煤炭、化工、钢材、水泥、有色金属等一些工厂停工停产,部分上游产品价格上涨。同时,东北部分地区的居民用电受到影响。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">当下是中国生产旺季和全球供货的高峰期,为何在这个关键时期掀起一场限电潮?供给端约束是否引发价格上涨,冲击经济复苏?电力不足是否会成为一种常态?能源保障与“双控”如何平衡?经济增长与“低碳”如何兼顾?</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">本文逻辑是从限电政策出发探索能源安全与经济增长之路。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; color: rgb(151, 72, 6);"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">一、限电政策</strong></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; color: rgb(151, 72, 6);"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">二、能源经济</strong></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; color: rgb(151, 72, 6);"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">三、低碳政治</strong></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px; color: rgb(192, 0, 0);">01&nbsp;</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px; color: rgb(192, 0, 0);">限电政策</span></strong><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">各地限电的直接原因是电力不足,电力不足的原因分为供给端和需求端。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">需求端是用电量增加,主要是上半年维持高速增长,制造工厂开足马力,电力需求大增。但是,供给端跟不上,主要是原煤产量不足,煤炭价格大涨。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">中国的电力结构以火电为主,火力发电量占据70%的份额,而火力发电的主要原料是煤炭。2021年1月份至8月份,全国火力绝对发电量同比增长率为12.6%,而原煤的产量增速仅有4.4%。数据显示:煤炭产能跟不上火力发电的增速。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">2020年,中国原煤产能39亿吨,供给处于偏紧状态,库存极为有限。根据中国煤炭市场网数据,截至今年9月13日,全国生产动力煤库存为1396.6万吨,较上月降幅0.65%,较去年同期降幅5.29%。中国海关总署的数据显示,2021年1月份至8月份,我国累计进口煤炭19768.8万吨,同比累计下降10.3%。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">很多人感到奇怪:为何不加大煤炭供应?</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">煤炭价格上涨与国际大宗商品上涨相关。巴西、智利等主要矿产区受疫情影响,产量供应不足,导致有色金属价格上涨。同时,全球主要央行超发货币,催长了大宗价格。但是,国际大宗商品价格上涨不是煤炭价格上涨的决定性因素。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">中国是世界第一大煤炭存储国和生产国。2019年中国煤炭储量占全球比重达13.2%,年产量世界第一。近十年来,原煤产量整体维持在30-40亿吨。煤炭资源总量占中国一次能源资源总量的94%。同时,中国也是第一大煤炭消费国。在我国一次能源消费结构中,煤炭的占比为60%-70%。每年进口原煤约3亿吨,对外依存度不到10%。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">不过,最近几年,在去产能、低碳环保、安全生产等政策推动下,煤炭产量增速缓慢,表外产能被压缩。从2014年开始,煤炭产量出现下降,2016年达到十年内最低值34.11亿吨。2017年开始原煤产量恢复增长,2019年产量恢复到2014年相当水平。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">在“十三五”期间,全国煤炭开发总体布局是:压缩东部、限制中部和东北、优化西部。煤炭结构得以优化,环保指数上升,但煤炭供应处于偏紧状态。2021年,山西、山东等煤炭主产区加大了对煤矿安全生产整治,一些高风险煤矿停产。今年6月,郑州煤电、ST大有均发布矿井停产公告,分别核定产能825万吨、1140万吨。7月,监管部门又批复煤矿复产,涉及产能6670万吨。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">但是,我们看到的煤炭产能数据是表内数据。这个行业,之前煤矿超产非常普遍,大量超出核定之外的产能,难以完全统计。但是,去年开始某产煤大省涉煤反腐“倒查20年”,监管部门加大对煤炭产业的监管力度。同时,今年刑法修正案,首次明确对未发生重大伤亡事故或未造成其它严重后果,但有现实危险的违法行为提出追究刑事责任。法律风险和监管收紧大大削减了表外的煤矿产能。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">8月开始,全国各地针对高污染、高耗能(“两高”)产业的“双控”政策调控升级。8月12日,国家发改委印发《2021年上半年各地区能耗双控目标完成情况晴雨表》,表中显示能耗强度双控进展顺利的省市目前占比尚不足半数。9月11日,国家发改委印发了《完善能源消费强度和总量双控制度方案》的通知。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">接着,一些省市对煤电、石化、化工、钢铁、有色、建材六大“两高”行业采取限电限产措施。粗钢、钢材、焦炭、有色、水泥等领域产量同比均明显低增。9月,焦炭产量录得3967万吨,大致持平于去年12月水平,同比增速仅为-5.0%。焦化企业开工率均值仅录得59.0%,数据刷新疫情以来新低,环比8月末回落8个点。以南方八省发电耗煤为观测,8月第四周-9月初日均耗煤在210-220万吨;9月8-9日下降至208万吨;9月13日后进一步降至190万吨左右【1】。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">煤炭产能不足,煤炭价格上涨。数据显示,环渤海动力煤价格指数从8月初670元/吨左右上涨到9月初的750元/吨。同时,动力煤期货最近大幅度上涨,9月28日主力合约触及涨停,涨幅8%,报1330元/吨,续创历史新高。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">煤炭价格上涨,火力发电供应不足,各地五六月份就开始陆续采取限电政策。限电政策约束供给端,降低了工业产能。9月第二周全国高炉开工率录得55.7%,PVC上游开工率录得79.2%,江浙织机负荷率录得59.2%,全国六大地区磨机开工率录得61.6%,汽车半钢胎开工率均值录得49.8%,同比均下滑。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">供给端约束,需求端旺盛,推动中上游原料及工业品价格上涨。中国化工产品价格指数(CCPI)9月前23日环比8月上行8.7%,是3月以来最大的单月涨幅。其中,全国水泥价格指数9月前22日环比8月上涨21.2%。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; color: rgb(151, 72, 6);"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">可见,煤电紧缺和限电政策对宏观经济影响很大。</strong></span>我在之前的《今年下半年经济走势》预测:中国市场的价格传递并不顺畅,上游涨价,下游涨不起来,结果中间的制造企业被两头挤压。下半年,中国制造企业被两头挤压,日子会很艰难。这是一种结构性问题:上游过热、下游疲软、中游挤压。煤电不足加剧了这一问题,上游原材料更加上涨,下游价格上涨空间有限,中游制造受两头挤压利润进一步被削弱,甚至出现亏损。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">显然,这是不可持续的。假如上游价格持续上涨,中游亏损压力加大,价格最终是否传递到终端,引发消费大通胀?价格传递是否顺畅取决于终端的购买力,在一般性市场,家庭购买力正常,大宗价格大涨会传递到终端引发大通胀。中国家庭的购买力无法完全承接上游价格传递,但中游制造不可能长期承担亏损,那么电力是否涨价?市场会怎么样演化?</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">假设上游的价格居高不下,终端消费市场可能向局部通胀,或者“微通胀+低产能+劣商品”的组合方向演变。微通胀指的是终端市场也承接了一些价格传递(如烟酒价格上涨),低产能是上游价格太高打击了产能供给(如限电限产),劣商品是指中游将资源安排到更低品质的商品上,以满足相对疲弱的消费市场;低产能和劣商品形成一定的价格对冲,终端市场可能出现微通胀。当然,市场存在不确定性,以上仅为推测,不作为投资决策依据。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">但是,如何解决?</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px; color: rgb(192, 0, 0);">02</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px; color: rgb(192, 0, 0);">能源经济</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; color: rgb(151, 72, 6);"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">有些人不建议政府直接使用行政手段实施拉闸限电和错峰供电,而应采用市场手段调节用电供给与需求。</strong></span>像欧美国家一样,煤炭价格上涨,电价随之涨,进而调节用电需求,同时激励电厂加大电力供应。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">比如,电价上涨,用电成本上涨,一些家庭可能提高空调的温度,一些企业可能减少不必要电能消耗,节省的电能留给一些有支付能力、经济效益较好的企业;发电企业考虑到电价上涨有利可图,便加大电力供应,更好地满足市场需求,同时平抑电力价格。这就是价格原理,价格可以优化电力资源配置,将电力分配给利用得最好的人手上。价格的柔性调节可以避免工厂因强制性停产引发的产能脉冲,有助于宏观经济的稳定。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">但是,这种价格方案在中国的煤电市场中只对了一半。为什么?</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">其实,这是一个长期存在的问题,那就是“计划电市场煤”的矛盾。在中国,煤炭价格是市场化的价格,但是电力价格是计划价格,电价固定在一个小范围内浮动,失去了价格的灵活性和调节性。这导致一个问题:每当煤炭价格大涨时,发电企业受到上下游的挤压,利润削减,甚至出现“面粉贵过面包”的亏损,失去发电的积极性。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">国家统计局最新数据显示:今年1-8月份,石油、煤炭及其他燃料加工业利润总额同比增长24.71倍,其中煤炭开采和洗选业增长1.45倍;而电力、热力生产和供应业下降15.3%。换言之,煤炭价格上涨,让上游大赚,但是打击了中游的电力生产。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">按照这个逻辑,当前的电力价格被抑制了,低于自然价格,应该上涨,调节电力需求,同时激励电厂加大供应,进而平抑电力价格。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">但是,为什么这个逻辑只对了一半?因为中国主要电厂和电网企业都是国有企业,处于非竞争性地位。换言之,在电力供应紧张的局面下,国有企业的任务是保障民生与经济生产。反过来,如果要打破“计划电市场煤”的矛盾,采取“市场电”,那么发电与电网也需要市场化。如果没有充分的竞争,电力价格上涨,但是电力产能未必增加,同时发电和电网成本难以下降。只有在市场竞争的压力下,发电和电网公司才会想办法降低发电成本、降低高薪、削减中间商差价,扩大电力产能,降低电力价格。如此,电力的价格机制才能充分发挥作用。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; color: rgb(151, 72, 6);"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">不过,电力紧缺只是表面问题,更深层次的问题是能源问题。能源问题表面上是结构问题,本质是能源技术和效率问题。</strong></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">近些年,中国大力发展新能源汽车,主要是电动汽车。这次煤电不足给市场一个警示:电动汽车的前景是否受到电力瓶颈的约束?</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">过去,市场存在一个误区,将电力等同于新能源。其实,电力是一种二次能源,关键看发电结构。中国电力主要是火力发电,就当前的发电结构和煤电技术来说,电量消耗越多,煤炭消耗也就越多,碳排放也就越大。可见,这并不是低碳环保之路。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">过去几年,中国努力改善能源结构,降低煤炭的依赖度,削减煤电比重,加大风力、太阳能等新能源发电。但是,如果不是依托于技术进步的能源结构改善可能面临更大的风险。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">这次限电政策引发广大关注的是东北地区,突然拉闸限电对居民生活造成了影响。为何突然拉闸限电?官方给出的解释是:9月23日至25日,由于风电骤减等原因,电力供应缺口进一步增加至严重级别,辽宁省启动3轮II级(负荷缺口10-20%)有序用电措施,个别时段在实施有序用电措施最大错避峰416.92万千瓦的情况下,电网仍存在供电缺口。根据《电网调度管理条例》,东北电网调度部门依照有关预案,直接下达指令执行“电网事故拉闸限电”。简单理解就是,风电骤减引发了电力缺口。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">这与东北的电力结构有关系。截止2020年底,东北的火力发电占63%,风电18%,光伏8%,水电7%,核电4%。火力发电比重高,但是低于全国平均值。在新能源发电方面,东北走得比较前,压缩煤电,发展风电。最近几年,东北在环保等政策下降低了煤矿产能,大量向内蒙古采购原煤。经《财经》记者统计,2020年黑龙江、辽宁、吉林原煤产量合计0.93亿吨,较2016年的1.13亿吨下滑约17.7%,东北三省占全国煤炭总产量的比例也由3%下滑至2.4%。【2】</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">今年9月,煤炭紧缺,原煤价格上涨,火力发电量下降,近日用电紧张期间,辽宁的火电出力仅为装机容量的一半左右。这时,东北的电力供应对光伏、风电的依赖度大大增加。但是,光伏、风电并不稳定。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">东北三省风电总装机达到约3500万千瓦,但在9月21日冷空气过后,风电出力出现明显下降,近日限电期间,风电出力远不足装机容量的10%。9月23日国家电网东北电力调度中心签发的一份电网拉闸限电预通知单信息显示:当时系统频率低于49.8赫兹——中国电网正常运行的频率是50赫兹,当电网频率低于49.8赫兹时,可能出现电网系统崩溃的风险。调度部门耗尽了全网频率调整手段,但是无法拉升频率,最后只能开启拉闸限电。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">可见,风电的不稳定性是这次东北拉闸限电的直接原因,新能源发电反而提高了东北的电力供应风险。能源专家刘科院士做过一个测算:一年有8760小时,全国太阳能平均每年发电小时数大约在1450-1750小时左右。风能每年发电的时间大约是2000小时左右,但电是需要24小时供的【3】。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">解决办法主要是储电。目前,光伏发电和风电的发电成本与火电相当,但是如果加上储电,光伏发电和风电变得非常昂贵。靠储电来维持稳定的电力供应,当前的技术是无法实现的。“据估算,目前全世界电池生产商5年多的电池产能仅能满足东京全市停电3天的电能。”假如电力存储技术进步提高存储效率,光伏发电和风电是不是可以替代火电?</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">当然有这种可能,毕竟技术创新难以预测。但是,电力存储技术——能源密度在过去一百年里进步非常有限。刘科院士指出,100多年前就发明的铅酸电池的能量密度是90千瓦时/立方米,人类花了上千亿美元和100多年的探索,电池能量密度到现在特斯拉的电池、比亚迪的刀片电池,也就是260千瓦时/立方米。这是由物质形态决定的,液态的能源密度是最高的。汽油的能量密度是8600千瓦时/立方米,柴油是9600千瓦时/立方米,远远高于电池能量密度【3】。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">所以,电力结构的优化和能源结构的调整,必须建立在技术进步的基础上才能保障能源供应与安全。那么,按照这个逻辑,中国是不是还是得大力发展火电?中国能源结构如何改善?如何实现低碳经济?</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px; color: rgb(192, 0, 0);">03</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px; color: rgb(192, 0, 0);">低碳政治</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; color: rgb(151, 72, 6);"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">现在的能源难题是:既要保障供电、能源供应,又要降低高耗能高污染。</strong></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">如何解决?</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">这个时候很考验一般性逻辑。解决能源难题应该遵循两个基本逻辑:一是市场竞争,技术赛跑;二是解决外部性。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">先看第一个逻辑。我们首先要解决能源供应问题,能源供应表面上是禀赋和结构问题,本质上是技术和效率问题。最佳解决方案不是指定新能源或旧能源,不是鼓励电能或限制煤炭,而是让各种能源,不管是一次能源还是二次能源,自由竞争,技术赛跑,最终市场来选择。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">传统观点认为,中国能源禀赋结构存在严重的问题,主要是“富煤缺油少气”。数据显示:在一次能源结构中,我国化石能源资源中煤占90%以上,石油和天然气加起来不到9%;中国的人均煤炭资源是世界平均的50%,石油及天然气仅有7%。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">但是,这其实是一个误区。能源结构建立在资源禀赋的基础上,但更依赖于能源技术。换言之,能源技术可以改变能源禀赋。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">历史上,美国的能源禀赋也是“富煤缺油少气”,但是经过三次能源技术革命后,美国的煤、油、天然气均实现自给,甚至可以出口。最近一次能源技术革命就是页岩气革命。2008年前世界石油价格持续上涨,美国乃至全球面临石油紧缺的风险。这刺激了美国企业大规模投入页岩气技术。之后,页岩气革命取得成功,大量原本深藏在地下的油气被开发出来。2014年,美国天然气总产量已居世界第一,其中半数是页岩气;大规模的非常规油气开发帮助美国的油气产量超过沙特阿拉伯,占世界10%。尽管美国的资源存量只占世界2.1%,远低于沙特的15.9%,但是技术革命大大增加了其资源的开发效率,美国转而成为了油气出口国。页岩气革命降低了国际原油价格,每当国际油价涨到页岩气边际成本,便面临下行压力。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">理论上,中国并不“缺油少气”,只是受制于开发技术。国土资源部发布报告表明,早在2013年全国常规石油地质资源量达到1085亿吨,但迄今的探明程度也只有33%;常规天然气地质资源量68万亿立方米,但探明程度只有18%。中国南海的油气资源颇为丰富,但受制于开采技术。据联合国贸易和发展会议(UNCTAD)2018年5月发布的一份报告显示,中国的页岩气储量达31.6万亿立方米,排名全球第一,远远超过美国的17.7万亿立方米。《中国矿产资源报告(2018)》显示,截止2018年4月底,我国页岩气累计探明地质储量已经超过万亿立方米。但是,受限于技术,对埋深在4000米以下页岩气的开采未能获得实质性突破。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; color: rgb(151, 72, 6);"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">所以,改善能源结构、保障能源供应,关键是提高能源技术与效率。</strong></span>能源并不存在新旧之分,不宜人为去选择或限制。煤炭、油气、光伏、风能、核能自由赛跑,市场自然会选择最有效率的能源。煤电、光伏电、风电、核电,哪个便宜又安全,哪个就是最好。假如电池储存技术获得突破,光伏电和风电则优势巨大;假如核电安全技术获得突破,将是一个重要的市场选项。也希望这次煤电供应紧张能够加速中国各类能源领域的市场化改革。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">但是,欧洲和美国正在这个问题上犯错误,气候问题在欧美世界被政治化。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">在欧洲,执政者长期排斥煤炭、石油,畏惧核能核电,青睐天然气,导致天然气管道受制于俄罗斯,欧洲能源价格上涨。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">在美国,石油、天然气是共和党的支持势力,共和党反对气候政治化,特朗普政府退出巴黎气候协议。但是,对于民主党来说,气候就是政治选票,可以博取进步派背后的环保主义者及左派知识分子的支持,也可以讨好建制派背后的硅谷新能源和科技巨头。拜登上台第一件事就是让美国重返巴黎气候协议,同时打击油气势力,将页岩气的补贴转给风电和太阳能。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">最近,拜登政府的能源部 (DOE) 发布了《太阳能未来研究》,计划到2035年,太阳能电力占据全美40%,当前这一比例仅为3%;风电和太阳能电力合计占全美75%。实际上,美国大力发展光伏发电,促使电价持续上涨。因为光伏发电的不稳定性和电力储存的高成本限制了电力供应。若要完成以上目标,按当前的储存技术,锂、铜、钴、镍等有色金属价格将难以想象。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">这背离或干扰了能源发展的市场路线。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">第二个一般性逻辑是解决外部性。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">很多人会提出疑问:只关注经济效率,忽视能源安全,污染谁来负责?发生核泄漏怎么办?如何实现“碳中和”?</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">数据显示,2020年,中国二氧化碳排放大约103亿吨,其中,煤炭、石油、天然气排放达到95亿吨。换言之,90%以上的二氧化碳都来自煤炭、石油、天然气。因此,人们很自然会想办法降低或禁止这三种能源的消费。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">但是,这并不是一个正确的逻辑。举个例子,我们每天可能都会喝牛奶,但是每多喝一瓶牛奶,就会多排放一定量的二氧化碳。这个二氧化碳主要来自:奶牛放屁、打嗝,以及牛奶生产、运输。那么,我们是不是要减少或禁止喝牛奶?</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">污染本质上是一个外部性问题,解决外部性的正确逻辑并不是消灭那个企业、产业或资源,而是让污染付出代价。比如,汽车尾气污染空气,那么使用者需要为此支付成本;工厂排污污染河流,工厂要为此支付费用。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">解决办法可以采用庇古的征税法,如征税污染税,也可以科斯的市场交易法,如类似于排放放交易市场。让污染者为外部性付出代价,可以被迫其提高技术减少污染,最终实现“碳中和”。这样,社会福利是最大化的。只要采取解决外部性的统一标准——污染者付出代价,煤炭、石油、天然气、风电、光伏、核能都会往更加安全、更加低碳的技术方向上前进,市场个体无时无刻在边际上做出选择。比如,外部性标准促进炼油技术和发动机技术进步,如今欧洲汽车排放的二氧化碳含量已经非常低。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">最后,除了以上两个一般性逻辑外,实际操作也考验着执政者。实际上,高福利的低碳生活是一种奢侈品。这条繁荣与低碳之路建立在技术进步与市场选择的基础之上。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">但是,当下,拜登政府面临债务上限难题——事关明年中期选举,不论在国会还是在联合国,拜登急于拿气候政治来争取支持者。这一政治诉求所引发的全球行动,正约束着原本紧迫的全球能源与原材料供给端,阻碍着正在复苏的世界经济。<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; color: rgb(151, 72, 6);"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">这就是低碳政治。</strong></span></p><p><br/></p><p>来源:智本社</p><link rel="stylesheet" href="//www.fqlook.cn/source/plugin/wcn_editor/public/wcn_editor_fit.css?v134_SuR" id="wcn_editor_css"/>
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