重磅分析！全面牛市还有多远
<section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; widows: 1; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">全面牛市，对于A股的投资者而言，可以说是一个遥远到陌生的词汇了。上一次全面牛市还是2015年，如今已经过去了6年。这6年中，外国股市疯了一样上涨，而我们还在半山腰。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></span></section></section><p></p><section data-mpa-template-id="2083" data-mpa-color="#ffffff" data-mpa-category="标题" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; widows: 1; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="outer" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-id="90255" deep="25" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: center; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 2em;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">从2018年股市见底以来，我们的指数上涨幅度已经超过了20%，其实已经算牛市了。但是，这种牛市却是极端分化的牛市。上涨的股票是炒了一轮又一轮，各种概念都上天了，当然，泡沫也是破了一轮又一轮了。</span></span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 2em;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 2em;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">很多股票的估值都在历史顶部，高达百倍甚至千倍的市盈率。而还有四分之一的股票，不仅估值在历史底部，股价也是从2015年一路跌到了现在，创了历史新低。这和以前牛市那种全面普涨的行情是完全不一样的。</span></span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 2em;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 2em;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">甚至在去年，一度流行一种说法，A股正在美股化和港股化，小市值没戏了，以后都是大白马的天下。而今年大白马几乎全部腰斩，代表小市值的中证1000却创了新高。而以前的“小破烂”，最近换了一个马甲，叫“高精特专”，成为了炒作的热点。</span></span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 2em;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 2em;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">我认为，从2018年到现在，都是牛市前期，这个时期最主要的特点就是分化。而全面的牛市，未来还会到来，对此我多次表达过乐观的态度。</span></span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 2em;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 2em;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">毕竟，我们的货币还有很大的宽松空间。前两天的重磅会议已经指出，要让信贷合理增长来支持经济发展。目前，10年期国债收益率不断下跌，这是一个非常重要的前提。</span></span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 2em;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 2em;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">另外，我们的估值依然不高。整体的估值从历史数据看，在底部的五分之一。这是另外一个重要的前提。当然，不可否认，局部的泡沫，比如新能源，已经在历史顶部。一旦营收增速不及预期，随时可能腰斩。</span></span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 2em;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 2em;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">最后，从技术面上看。我之前认为股市在7月见到今年新低，反弹一波然后回踩。之前初步预计回踩到3312，不过本周一盘中，通过几个技术指标，我认为回踩已经结束了。这也意味着，指数应该不会再大幅下跌了。</span></span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 2em;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 2em;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">而至于全面牛市的启动。我认为可能有三个信号：</span></span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 2em;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 2em;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">第一信号就是货币的进一步宽松，而且必须是降息。降准的效果已经不行了，7月降准后，货币数据还不及预期了。</span></span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 2em;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 2em;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">第二，新一轮的财政刺激政策出炉。美国在疫情后，已经通过了两轮财政刺激政策，发钱都发了两轮。而且第三轮刺激，也就是基建计划和家庭、气候支出计划，也通过了关键的投票。而我们几乎没有出台重磅的刺激措施。我说的重磅，是类似2008年和2015年那样的重磅措施，上周末已经分析过了。</span></span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 2em;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 2em;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">第三，金融股发力。A股经历的几次全面大牛市，必然有金融的发力。目前金融全部都在历史底部趴着，很多金融股都已经跌破净值。而金融发力的风向标，就是券商。从5月以来，券商有3波冲高和跳水，被成为“骗炮”行情。目前券商是第四波冲高，很多人已经不相信券商了，而我认为，这次可能真的不一样了。</span></span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 2em;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></span></section><section style="margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 2em;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">以上信号一旦出现，那么就是6年一次的机会了。</span></span></section></section></section></section><p></p><p>作者：时代之<br/></p><link rel="stylesheet" href="//www.fqlook.cn/source/plugin/wcn_editor/public/wcn_editor_fit.css?v134_Diz" id="wcn_editor_css"/> 不懂 扯！扯！扯✅！ 快可以出货了，我只买沪深三百里的票，现在沪深三指数快见顶了 别慌，再等等 券商涨，没好事，赶紧跑 史无前例的超级大牛市 都是事后诸葛亮，星期一发这个消息就好了 感觉又在下套，不跌不买，不追涨，但杀跌
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