今年上半年M2为什么会陡峭下行
<p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">8月23日，央行召开金融机构货币信贷形势分析座谈会，央行行长易刚在总结中强调，要继续做好跨周期设计，衔接好今年下半年和明年上半年信贷工作，加大信贷对实体经济特别是中小微企业的支持力度，增强信贷总量增长的稳定性，保持货币供应量和社会融资规模增速同名义经济增速基本匹配。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">市场关注的是，下半年的信贷和货币会如何，因为7月份金融数据所反映的金融条件相对是收缩比较严重的，市场从这次会议新闻稿中，读到了“稳定”的重要性，稳字当头。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">而从今年上半年的金融条件看，到了7月份货币信贷收缩比较严重。今年6月末，人民币贷款余额是185.5万亿元，同比增长12.3%，比年初增加12.8万亿元，同比多增6677亿元。7月份人民币贷款增加1.08万亿元，比上年同期多增905亿元。这说明前7月信贷增速是不错的。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">但是从社会融资的角度看，今年上半年的社会融资增量为17.74万亿元，比上年同期少了3.13万亿元，7月社会融资规模增量为1.06万亿元，比上年同期少6362亿元。央行对此的解释是，一是人民币贷款同比多增较多，二是信托贷款和未贴现的银行承兑汇票同比明显多减，三是企业债券同比少增。四是政府债务同比少增。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">这导致了货币发行量的收缩，到了7月，广义货币(M2)余额增速分别比上月末和上年同期低0.3个和2.4个百分点；狭义货币(M1)余额同比增长4.9%，增速分别比上月末和上年同期低0.6个和2个百分点。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">其实，整个今年前半年M2的下滑都是比较陡峭的，1月份M2是9.4%，M2增加到10.1%，此后开始大幅下滑，到了4月份成为8.1%的增速，此后就在8.3%附近震荡。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">最近几年M2的增速最低的是2018年，2018年10月和11月曾经两个月连续在8.0%，此后缓慢爬升，2019年全年都在8.5%附近震荡，直到2020年新冠疫情爆发，货币政策要对冲疫情对经济的下行压力，才开始迅猛攀升，最高到去年三四五月连续到11%的高度。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">由此我们就可以看出来，M2为什么今年会下滑，我们知道2018年M2的下滑主要是因为金融去杠杆，打破刚性兑付，让影子银行的资产回表，这直接导致了货币供应量的收缩。而今年跟2018年不同，主要是为了降低宏观杠杆率。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">去年10月14日，调查统计司司长阮健弘在央行2020年第三季度金融统计数据新闻发布会表示，今年受疫情影响，宏观杠杆率会出现阶段性的上升。宏观杠杆率的回升是宏观政策支持疫情防控和国民经济恢复的一个体现，应该允许宏观杠杆率有阶段性的上升。2020年宏观杠杆率比2019年上升23.5个百分点，增幅比上年扩大16.7个百分点。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">此后M2的增速便一路下滑，表明监管已经关注到了宏观杠杆率攀升的问题，在央行去年末央行货币政策委员会第四季度会议就指出，保持宏观杠杆率基本稳定，这个例会此前很少提到宏观杠杆率的问题。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">今年5月1日，央行调查统计司司长阮健弘和中刘西在“政策研究”栏目，发表了题为《近年来我国稳杠杆促增长取得显著成效》的文章指出，2021年一季度我国宏观杠杆率为276.8%，比上年末低2.6个百分点，其中，非金融企业部门杠杆率为160.3%，比上年末低0.9个百分点；政府部门杠杆率为44.5%，比上年末低1.3个百分点；住户部门杠杆率为72.1%，比上年末低0.4个百分点。2020年四季度宏观杠杆率已经下降1.6%。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">而国家金融与发展实验室日前发布的《2021年二季度中国杠杆率报告》显示，今年二季度我国宏观杠杆率下降了2.6个百分点，为265.4%；上半年共下降4.7个百分点。三个季度下来，中国宏观杠杆率共下降了6.8个百分点。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">很显然，政府有意压低宏观杠杆率尤其是居民部门的杠杆率，是今年以来M2增速下降的主要原因。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">由此可见，下半年货币信贷的形势，主要看央行如何看待杠杆率的问题，6月28日，央行货币政策委员会会议仍然表述为，保持货币供应量和社会融资规模增速同名义经济增速基本匹配，保持宏观杠杆率基本稳定。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">从目前的全球来看，2020年三季度，我国杠杆率比2019年末高25.1个百分点，而发达经济体、美国、日本、欧元区杠杆率分别比2019年末高33.1、36.8、36.3、28.1个百分点，增幅明显高于我国。而新兴市场国家杠杆率比2019年末高21.8个百分点，我国杠杆率增幅略高于新兴市场国家。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">我国2020年四季度和2021年前半年我国宏观杠杆率已经净下降6.8个百分点，这已经低于新兴市场国家杠杆率增幅，而全球无论是发达经济体还是新兴市场国家，除个别已经加息的国家之外，宏观杠杆率还在扩张，我国宏观杠杆率的压力已经显著减轻。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">当然要保持宏观杠杆的稳定和下降，主要是要分母GDP要保持上涨，同时分母债务要保持下降或者稳定，所以完成这个任务的压力也是很大的。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">那么下半年，在美联储将逐步缩减QE，甚至全面退出量化宽松的背景下，全球的宏观杠杆率都面临收缩的压力，中国的宏观率是否会继续下降，目前市场的预期是将会稳定杠杆率，货币政策将出现边际宽松，这当然影响到下半年金融市场的走势。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 8px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 2px;">由于M2的增速已经接近历史低位，下行的空间已经不大，但是因此，笔者认为，即使考虑到经济需求下滑而货币政策边际宽松，货币的增幅也不会太高。</span></p><p><br/></p><p>来源：华夏时报</p><link rel="stylesheet" href="//www.fqlook.cn/source/plugin/wcn_editor/public/wcn_editor_fit.css?v134_Diz" id="wcn_editor_css"/>
页:
[1]