最新房地产投资前景TOP50，福州排第几？
<section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: justify;text-wrap: wrap;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="87925" style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><section data-role="outer" style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="87925" style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><section style=";padding: 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!important;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;color: rgb(43, 156, 69)"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light"><strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">榜单解读</strong></span></section></section></section><section style=";padding: 2px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-image: linear-gradient(to right, rgb(43, 156, 69), rgb(254, 236, 233));border-radius: 100%"><section style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background: rgb(242, 248, 246);width: 11px;height: 11px;border-radius: 100%;overflow: hidden"><br style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"/></section></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 8px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-image: linear-gradient(to left, rgba(253, 123, 119, 0) 0%, rgb(43, 156, 69) 100%);height: 1px;flex: 1 1 0%"><br style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"/></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="outer" label="edit by 135editor" style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">2024</span><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">年以来，房地产政策主基调延续宽松，居民信贷政策迎来</span><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">“</span><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">史诗级</span><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">”</span><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">利好，首付比例降低、取消房贷下限。</span><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">企业融资方面，房地产融资协调机制加速推进，白名单项目获批近万亿融资额度。</span><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">需求侧方面，央行推出再贷款工具支持地方国资收储存量商品房，各地推进住房“以旧换新”，也在实质上推动了部分新房项目的成交。</span><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">不过从交易指标走势来看，由于</span><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">2023</span><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">年上半年基数较高，</span><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">2024</span><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">年全国新房交易同比降幅再度扩大至二成以上，而</span><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">2023</span><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">年筑底表现较佳的重点一二线城市，平均降幅更是高达三成。</span><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">在当前的艰难的市场环境下，行业平稳筑底更需要优秀的政务环境扶持，尤其是地方政府对于房地产市场的合理管控，适时推出有力的调控政策，对于优化房地产行业的发展环境尤为关键。</span><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">从企业投资角度，对于盈利空间和市场竞争的考量也应当更加审慎。</span></p><section style="margin: 24px 0px 24px 9px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">为适应行业发展变化需要，CRIC研究中心在历年的研究基础之上，将《城市房地产发展前景排行》进一步升级为《城市房地产营商环境排行榜》，在参考以往指标体系的测算思路基础上，将城市样本扩充至297个地级市，进一步增加城市政务环境、盈利空间、市场竞争等指标维度，对各城市房地产项目的盈利风险和投资机会进行综合评价。综合运用因子分析、相关性分析、回归分析、</span><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: var(--weui-LINK);cursor: default">Ahp</span><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">层次分析、 德尔菲法等多种数学工具，对</span></span><strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">城市房地产营商环境</strong>和<strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">房地产发展前景</strong>进行定量化研究，对不同城市能级的前景来源予以剖析，并对排名前列城市的指标特征进行归纳总结。</span></section><section style="margin: 24px 0px 24px 9px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">对比两榜城市位次来看，营商环境和市场发展前景两榜的城市排名具有着较强的相关性，意味着整体营商环境较佳的城市，其市场发展前景的相关技术指标也大多表现较佳，如营商环境TOP10和发展前景TOP10的城市名单中，有6个城市位次完全相同。也有部分城市存在差异，如深圳（营商第3、前景第7），住房需求基数大、营商环境指标表现优异，但楼市库存、交易等指标表现不及相近位次的其他城市，城市的房地产发展前景排名明显低于营商环境。而西安（营商第12，前景第8）则恰恰相反，房地产发展指标优于经济发展和营商环境，其发展前景排名则更为靠前。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 25px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.5em"><section hm_fix="424:419" style="margin: 10px 5px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;text-align: center"><section style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;display: inline-block"><section style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: flex-start"><section style=";padding: 0px 0px 4px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background: rgb(242, 248, 246)"><section style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 8px;height: 8px;background: rgb(100, 184, 130);overflow: hidden"><br style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"/></section></section></section></section></section><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="144931" style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><section style="margin: 10px auto;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;display: flex;justify-content: center"><section style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;display: flex;flex-direction: column"><section style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start"><section style=";padding: 5px 15px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(218, 191, 117);border-radius: 5px;transform: skew(-15deg) translate(-15px, 4px)"><section style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;transform: skew(15deg)"><section style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;color: rgb(51, 51, 51)"><strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">PART </strong><strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">0</strong><strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">1</strong></section></section></section></section><section style=";padding: 6px 25px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(43, 156, 69);border-radius: 5px;z-index: 5"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span data-brushtype="text" style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">格局：北方城市中仅北京位列TOP10<br style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"/>江浙两省地市平均排名跻身前50</strong></span></p></section><section data-width="92%" style="margin: 5px 0px 0px auto;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 294.859px;border-top: 1px solid rgb(218, 191, 117);height: 1px;overflow: hidden;transform: translateX(15px)"><br style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"/></section></section></section></section><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><br style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">营商环境榜单的测评结果来看，TOP10中绝大部分城市均位于中国的秦岭——淮河分界线以南，北方城市仅有北京一个。在加入了政务环境和盈利空间等方面的指标之后，在更加宽松的营商环境之下，南方的一二级城市呈现出了更加明显的发展优势。</span></p><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">具体来看，前六位为4个一线城市和杭州、成都。上海凭借行业交易规模和供求关系指标的优势，超过北京排名第一。深圳库存和一二级市场规模指标虽然表现相对一般，但凭借优异的经济基本面和外来人口发展速度，长期需求支撑评价遥遥领先，仍然得以排在第三的位置。而杭州、成都则是凭借更优的行业调控能力，行业投资风险相对较低，超过广州分列4、5两位。</span></section><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">从TOP50城市的分布情况来看，江苏、浙江两省分布最为密集。作为长三角的发展核心，江浙沪已经形成了“南京-苏南-上海-杭州-宁波-温州”的“3”字型发达城市群走廊，尤其是南京-上海段的长江流域，得益于发达的民营经济支持，居民收入水平在全国范围内处于领先位置，吸引了大量外来人口的到来，两岸城市更是几乎全部跻身TOP50，排名相对较低的镇江也排在了第51的位置。不过需要指出的是，由于沪宁沿线城市房地产市场起步较早，前期投资相对饱和，目前也大多面临着较为严峻的去化压力，供求指标示警，典型如南京近年来</span><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: var(--weui-LINK);cursor: default">去化率</span><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">持续低迷，新房市场交易规模也一降再降，房地产营商环境评测仅为第14名，明显低于城市本身的经济发展水平。</span></span></span></section><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">此外苏北、浙西南的其他地级市排名也均位于全国前100行列。从地级市的平均排名来看，浙江、江苏分别为39和45名，是是唯二平均排名在50名以内的省份，至于福建、山东、广东等经济强省，由于省内经济发展不够均衡，平均排名均在80名以后。如福建沿海的泉州、</span><strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;color: rgb(217, 33, 66)">福州</span></strong><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">、厦门排名相对较高、均在TOP30行列，但漳州、三明、龙岩、南平等城市均排在100名以后的位置。</span></section><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">在行业资金面承压、土地投资续紧缩的2024年上半年，仍有部分城市土地市场保持了较高的热度，且大多为营商环境评价较优的城市，如苏州、合肥、成都、长沙、上海、厦门、杭州等TOP10城市，平均溢价率仍能保持在5%以上。在2024年新房交易持续下行的大环境中，呈现出了更强的市场发展韧性。</span></section><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"></p><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">从资源集中度情况来看，房地产营商环境TOP50城市拥有全国34.6%的常住人口，贡献了51%的GDP，人均GDP达到全国平均的1.5倍。房地产指标表现更优，2023年全年商品房成交金额接近8亿元，达到全国总量的67%，而土地成交金额仅占全国的30%，同期土地成交金额仅为商品房成交金额的32%，很好地抓住了2023年上半年的市场去化机会加速去库存，TOP50城市新房成交规模与2022年基本持平；少数如成都、天津、杭州等城市的2023年新房交易规模更是实现了同比回升。也正是由于2023年上半年基数较高，再加之行业规模仍在向下探寻底部的过程之中，2024年上半年TOP50城市的土地、新房市场交易规模不可避免迎来了普降，平均跌幅高达三成左右。不过鉴于TOP50在去库存方面更强的决心和执行力，对于那些土地、新房去化仍能维持较佳热度的优质板块，其土地市场投资机会依旧值得关注。<strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"></strong></span></section><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><br style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"/></p></section><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="144931" style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><section style="margin: 10px auto;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;display: flex;justify-content: center"><section style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;display: flex;flex-direction: column"><section style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start"><section style=";padding: 5px 15px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(218, 191, 117);border-radius: 5px;transform: skew(-15deg) translate(-15px, 4px)"><section style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;transform: skew(15deg)"><section style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;color: rgb(51, 51, 51)"><strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">PART </strong><strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">0</strong><strong data-num="2" style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">2</strong></section></section></section></section><section style=";padding: 6px 25px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(43, 156, 69);border-radius: 5px;z-index: 5"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span data-brushtype="text" style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">分化：一二线规模指标优势显著<br style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"/>仅少数东南沿海三线排名跻身前列</strong></span></p></section><section data-width="92%" style="margin: 5px 0px 0px auto;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 274.312px;border-top: 1px solid rgb(218, 191, 117);height: 1px;overflow: hidden;transform: translateX(15px)"><br style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"/></section></section></section></section><p style="margin-top: 32px;margin-bottom: 24px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.6em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">从各能级城市综合排名情况来看，一二线城市凭借更佳的需求指标，在行业调控方面更加游刃有余，对于目前业内所高度关注的供求关系、盈利空间等指标方面，一二线城市也表现更佳。至于三四线城市方面，除了少数拥有一定产业发展优势、吸引了较多外来人口的长三角、珠三角城市之外，大多数城市受制于经济发展和需求基本面不振等因素，行业供求关系的重塑也更加艰难。</span></p><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">从短期市场走向来看，2024年上半年一线城市新房交易规模出现了四成左右的大幅下探，北京、广州、深圳狭义去化周期也达到了20个月以上，仅上海仍维持在一年左右的健康水平，土拍的平均溢价率也明显不及2023年同期，但北京、上海的优质稀缺地块仍能获得较高的土拍热度，如北京东城区金鱼池地块即拍出了25%的罕见高溢价。凭借着国内独一无二的经济和人口首位度叠加优势，一线城市即便在严峻的市场波动考验之下，其庞大的外来人口和大量的高收入岗位，仍然提供了坚实的需求侧支撑，而长期低位的人均住房面积，也代表着一线城市长期积压的巨大住房改善需求，共同构成一线城市房地产坚实看好的长期发展预期。</span></section><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">二线城市平均排名在31位，除少数房地产供求关系紧张或西北省份的省会城市之外，绝多数均排名在全国50位以内，其中华东各省的二线城市更是全部跻身TOP30。从近期房地产行业发展趋势来看，目前位列12名的西安更为值得关注，2024年上半年新房去化率仍能维持在四成左右，且在地方政府“以旧换新”等政策指引之下，仍能频频迎来开盘摇号，2024年上半年新房成交仅同比下降一成左右，市场稳定性更优于杭州、成都、厦门等城市。作为西北区域当之无愧的教育和经济发展中心，若后续西安在居民收入、城市经济等方面保持快速发展势头，并平衡好主城区和远郊区县的发展关系，来年营商环境排行有望跻身TOP10之列。至于南京、郑州等开盘去化率较低、消化周期较高的城市，若地方调控未能如期见效，房屋交易、库存压力等指标进一步恶化，来年评测位次或进一步下行。</span></section><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">三线城市方面，部分东南沿海城市表现较为突出，无锡、绍兴、温州、泉州、嘉兴、珠海等跻身TOP30。其中无锡表现较为突出，排名16位居于三线城市最前列，城市的发展优势主要还是在于发达的民营经济，集聚了较多的高收入群体，且苏南强县市的发展模式，也为地级市内的人口迁徙提供了更多可能，优秀的改善产品仍能获得不错的去化表现。不过从去化指标来看，无锡31个月的消化周期虽好于大多数三四线城市，但相比一二线城市平均水平而言仍有不小的差距。北方三四线城市中，廊坊排名最高，位列第35位，凭借紧邻首都的区位优势，廊坊承接了部分产业发展和住房需求的溢出，在需求规模、支付能力、人口发展等指标方面表现相对较优。</span></section><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><br style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><br style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"/></p><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="144931" style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><section style="margin: 10px auto;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;display: flex;justify-content: center"><section style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;display: flex;flex-direction: column"><section style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start"><section style=";padding: 5px 15px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(218, 191, 117);border-radius: 5px;transform: skew(-15deg) translate(-15px, 4px)"><section style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;transform: skew(15deg)"><section style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;color: rgb(51, 51, 51)"><strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">PART </strong><strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">0</strong><strong data-num="3" style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">3</strong></section></section></section></section><section style=";padding: 6px 25px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(43, 156, 69);border-radius: 5px;z-index: 5"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span data-brushtype="text" style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">规模：去库存目标下<br style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"/>重点城市土地成交普遍小于房屋交易规模</strong></span></p></section><section data-width="92%" style="margin: 5px 0px 0px auto;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 319.969px;border-top: 1px solid rgb(218, 191, 117);height: 1px;overflow: hidden;transform: translateX(15px)"><br style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"/></section></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><br style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"/></p><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;caret-color: red;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">受制于新房交易流速的快速下滑，2022年以来各城市去化压力快速攀高。至2024年年中，三四线城市平均去化周期已经达到三年以上，即便是TOP50城市的平均消化周期也在快速攀高，诸如沈阳、大连、昆明等城市均达到了两年以上。</span></section><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">面对库存压力的高企，绝大多数城市近年来土地成交普遍小于房屋交易规模，持续处于行业去库存阶段。综合房屋交易和土地交易面积规模来看，典型城市主要可分为四类：</span></p></section><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light"><strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">第一类是高规模城市</strong>，一二手房屋交易量仍突破1000万平方米，含宅土地成交量也在500万平方米以上。其中成都、西安、上海、杭州均为仍是近年来需求端表现较为出色的城市，土地市场方面也维持着相对较高的热度，如上海在2024年中解除地价上限之后，其后的首次土拍即迎来了21%的高溢价率成交。而在较高的行业供求体量之下， 即便城市去化面临一定困难，也有部分板块能够维持不错的表现，如南京近三年来新房成交规模连续下跌，消化周期已经达到两年以上，多数项目开盘去化率不到一成，但新进崛起的雨花核心区周边项目销售表现尚可，得益于产业发展的支持和板块内项目的价格营销，依旧保持着不错的流速，目前板块消化周期也维持在10个月以内的健康水平。</span></section><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light"><strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">第二类是典型供地紧缩城市</strong>，这些房屋交易成交规模仍维持在1000万平方米以上，但供地规模收窄至500万平方米以下，典型如沈阳、佛山、青岛等，在地方主管部门对于土地供给更为坚决的紧缩把控制下，其新房市场也有望更快的恢复供求平衡。如青岛2024年年中狭义消化周期仅为一年半，是极少数消化周期没有增加、保持同比持平的城市，苏州、佛山也好于同省份、同能级的南京、惠州。</span></section><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"></p><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light"><strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">第三类是低规模城市，</strong>一二手房屋交易量低于1000万平方米，土地成交量低于500万平方米。其中少部分城市近一年库存规模仍在缓慢增加，其中湖州、无锡、绍兴目前狭义消化周期均已超过30个月，市场库存高度承压，而金华市区消化周期虽然仍维持在20个月以内，但联系高达7个月的施工销售比来看，目前金华长期库存压力依旧居高不下。</span></section><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light"><strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">第四类则是典型库存攀高的城市，</strong>房屋交易量较低，而土地成交量较高，即扬州、常州。不过从供地计划和政府表态来看，两地地方政府已经大幅放缓了供地节奏。如扬州2024年计划经营性用地供应量仅为2023年土地成交量的四成；而常州更是于2024年6月表态，原则上不再新增供应普通商品住宅用地，并一律不再新增安置房用地供应，收购商品房用于征收安置。</span></section><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><section hm_fix="424:419" style="margin: 10px 5px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;text-align: center"><section style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;display: inline-block"><section style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: flex-start"><section style=";padding: 0px 0px 4px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background: rgb(242, 248, 246)"><section style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 8px;height: 8px;background: rgb(100, 184, 130);overflow: hidden"><br style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"/></section></section></section></section></section><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="144931" style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><section style="margin: 10px auto;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;display: flex;justify-content: center"><section style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;display: flex;flex-direction: column"><section style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start"><section style=";padding: 5px 15px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(218, 191, 117);border-radius: 5px;transform: skew(-15deg) translate(-15px, 4px)"><section style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;transform: skew(15deg)"><section style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;color: rgb(51, 51, 51)"><strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">PART </strong><strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">0</strong><strong data-num="4" style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">4</strong></section></section></section></section><section style=";padding: 6px 25px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(43, 156, 69);border-radius: 5px;z-index: 5"><section style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center"><strong data-brushtype="text" style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">各线城市房地产投资前景分析</strong></section></section><section data-width="92%" style="margin: 5px 0px 0px auto;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 243.859px;border-top: 1px solid rgb(218, 191, 117);transform: translateX(15px)"><br style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"/></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 24px 0;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">1) 一线城市：常住人口重回正增长，高收入支撑下、需求韧性依旧最佳</span></strong></section><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">自2020年以来常住人口增速明显放缓的一线四城2023年常住人口均回归正增长，尤其是深圳，2023年全市年末常住人口1779.01万人，比上年末增加12.83万人，在四个一线城市中增量居于首位；其次是上海，2023年也一改近几年常住人口下滑的趋势，2023年常住人口增至2487.45万人；相较于2022年底（2475.89万人），增长了11.56万人。这一数值也是自“十三五”规划提出人口长期调控目标后，增量上首次超过10万人。无独有偶，2023年末，北京市全市常住人口2185.8万人，比上年末增加1.5万人。这也是北京人口“六连降”之后首次增长。2023年末，2022年常住人口减少7.7万人的广州常住人口增至1882.70万人，较2022年增加了9.29万人。由此可见，一线城市人口吸引力依旧较强。</span></section><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"></p><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light"><strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">受落户门槛降低的影响，一线城市户籍人口增加明显提升。</strong>具体数据来看，2020—2023年，四城户籍人口呈现逐年上升趋势。其中，落户门槛最低的深圳增量最为显著，2021、2022、2023年增量分别为42.3、27.1、22.7万人，累计增量超92万，在一线四城中居于首位；其次是广州，2020-2023年累计户籍人口增量达71.5万人，排在第三位的为上海，户籍人口也有近39万人的增量，北京增量最少，约12.4万人。从户籍人口增量上来看，呈现出学历门槛要求越低、户籍人口增量最大的特点；并且随着政策落地的推进，户籍人口增量呈现小幅下滑的趋势。但是与落户门槛放松之前比较的话，近年来一线城市户籍人口增长量有了大幅提升。</span></section><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">2023年一线四城新房平均去化率达43%，远高于二三线城市。其中北京和上海表现最佳，开盘去化率均在六成以上。值得注意的是，虽然整体去化相对较佳，但是城市内部却存在较大差异。以上海为例，6月共32盘入市，累计7497套房源，整体去化率50%，去化率大于70%的项目有13个，占比41%，整体去化回升，但市郊区及区域内部两级分化依旧明显。</span></section><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"></p><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">综上来看，一线城市市场需求侧规模及市场抗风险能力仍然是其他能级城市难以企及的，市场韧性十足。另一方面，从2024年上半年的土拍进行情况来看，一线城市中京、沪均进入成交金额TOP3榜，分列第1和3位，北京成交金额达860千亿，夺得榜首。土拍热度来看，上海土拍热度依旧高居全国前列，2024年上半年平均溢价率高达7%，市场热度可见一斑。不仅如此，日前上海刚完成的取消10%溢价上限后的首场土拍中，杨浦平凉、长白竞拍轮数多达60、79轮，两地溢价率均突破15%（21%、17%），土地市场热度有明显回升，房地产企业仍然对一线城市的优质地块报以充分信心。因此，一线城市的投资前景依然位居全国各能级城市之首。</span></section><section style="margin: 24px 0;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">2) 二线城市：常住人口增速反弹，厦门、合肥等城市仍有较大增量空间</span></strong></section><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">由于二线城市城镇化率已达高位，未来增长空间有限的背景下，城市研究也更需要关注短期的常住人口总量变化。近年来热点一二线城市的“抢人大战”策略正在转变，长三角、珠三角多地放宽的落户政策淡化了学历，更青睐“技能人才”，比如杭州、南京分别将落户门槛降至大专，杭州更是出台了“买房即可申请落户”的新规，落户门槛明显下调，“人才争夺”逐渐演变至“人口争夺”。</span></section><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">在落户门槛放松以及产业复苏的双重助力之下，多个经济强市的常住人口出现了反弹。二线城市中，合肥2023年新增人口数量位居全国第一，高达21.9万，这一增量超越了郑州、杭州、成都等城市。不仅仅是合肥，经济实力较强的二线城市常住人口仍在不同程度的增加，典型如郑州、杭州、成都、深圳和上海等城市常住人口增量均超10万人，人口集聚情况比较突出。</span></section><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">在生育率下降、老龄化加速背景下，全国人口已连续两年负增长，2023年末全国人口140967万人，比上年末减少208万人。在总量的局限下，在不远的将来，大部分城市都将面临一个人口增速变缓或者下降的现实。譬如，我国人口第一大城市重庆常住人口规模明显收缩，2023年常住人口降至3191.43万人，减量21.9万人，这一数字恰好与2023年人口增量第一城合肥的增量持平。而2022年的常住人口增量第一城——长沙2023年末全市常住总人口1051.31万人，较2022年增加新增9.3万人，增量在二线城市中降至全国第六位。</span></section><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"></p><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">目前，我国所有居民人均住房面积已经超过41平方米，人均住房套数也达到了1.2套，从总量上来看已经不缺房。但是市区的人均住房面积仍在40平方米以下，相较欧美发达国家而言仍有较大发展空间。其中，二线城市人均住房面积仅41平方米，大多数城市尚存一定的改善空间。</span></section><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">从29个典型二线城市情况来看，有16个城市2023年城镇人均住房面积超过41平方米，其中西安、长沙、郑州、重庆等中西部城市表现尤为突出，人均住房面积均超过45平方米，未来进一步上升空间相对较小。相比之下，东南沿海、东北和西北城市人均住房面积处于相对低位，大多在45平方米以下。尤其是房价水平较高的厦门，人均住房面积仅31平方米，在二线城市中垫底，潜在改善空间较大。</span></section><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"></p><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">综上来看，得益于区域经济的发展，大部分二线城市对区域内流动人口的聚集优势明显，这也为大部分二线城市提供了充裕的购房需求。综合</span><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: var(--weui-LINK);cursor: default">房价收入比</span><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">和人均住房面积两项指标来看，</span></span><strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">合肥、厦门等城市人均住房面积不到40平方米，且房价收入比不到10年，未来改善性需求发展空间最为可期。</strong>联系2024年市场表现来看，这些城市虽然与自身同比表现一般，但横向对比来看，其新推售项目去化速度仍然较好，商品住宅去化周期也保持在相对健康的范围之内。</span></section><section style="margin: 24px 0;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"><strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">3) 三四线城市：长三角经济表现亮眼，淮安、南通等城市楼市交易相对活跃</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">2024年上半年，全国300城经营性土地成交金额仅8454亿元，同比降幅高达36%。并且受新房市场下行传导的影响，三四线城市成交金额占比快速下滑，2024年上半年金额占比仅有44%，较2023年下降了8个百分点，三四线土地市场收缩更为显著,土拍热度同样进一步下探，2024年上半年平均溢价率3.7%，在三个能级城市中最低。</span></section><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">三四线城市中，长三角地区城市表现相对较佳，经济总量TOP10城市中，长三角几乎占据半壁江山，无锡、南通、常州等城市2023年GDP等城市均超万亿元，其次，徐州、温州、绍兴、扬州、盐城、嘉兴、泰州、台州、金华、镇江和淮安等11座城市GDP超过5000亿元。</span></section><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">经济增速方面来看，41市中有35个城市跑赢全国增速（5.2%），超过7%的城市共有7座，全部来自江苏和浙江两省，分别是连云港、舟山、绍兴、淮安、宿迁、丽水、徐州。其中，连云港以10.2%的经济增速领跑，是长三角41市中唯一增速达两位数的城市；舟山以8.2%的经济增速位居第二；绍兴、淮安和宿迁并列第三，经济增速同为7.8%。这些城市显示出了更为坚韧的经济增速，其主要还是源自于发达的第三产业快速增长，且社零保持相对良好的发展速度，使得经济增速得以位于城市前列。</span></section><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"></p><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">与一二线城市相比，三四线城市最明显的特征是多数城市人均住房面积已达高位，导致改善性需求已经进入了缓慢增长期，典型如徐州、南通、东莞、中山等人均住房面积达到50平方米以上高位的三线城市，改善需求增长空间将明显受限。其居民住房改善的步伐将较上一个十年显著减缓。就我国3000县市的人均住房面积历史发展数据来看，当人均住房面积小于45平方米时，每年人均住房面积增长仍可达到1平方米/年以上，但是当达到50平方米以上时，每年改善性住房需求的增量将迅速下降至0.6平方米/年。对于这些城市，未来房地产项目发展要更加注重城市内的区域分化，重点关注城镇人口集聚度较高，人均住房面积尚有发展空间的核心区域和板块，尤其是对于人均住房面积超过60平方米的泉州而言更是如此。</span></section><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light">所幸的是，除佛山、东莞、惠州等少数珠三角城市外，典型三线城市的平均城镇化率仍在70%附近，未来常住人口的“乡-城”迁徙仍有一定发展空间，尤其是对于经济发展较快的县级市和市辖县而言，在新型城镇化发展的助推之下，未来县域城镇人口的集聚仍有望进一步带动相关住房需求的发展。就当地房地产调控的角度而言，也更应当注重对于新增城镇人口住房需求的扶持力度。</span></section><h3 style="margin: 24px 0;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-size: 17px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.6em"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="104799" data-color="#64b882" style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><section style="margin: 10px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;text-align: left"><section style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;display: inline-flex;justify-content: flex-start;background-image: linear-gradient(to right, rgb(125, 197, 164) 50%, rgb(100, 184, 130));align-items: flex-start"><section style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 40px;flex-shrink: 0"></section><section data-brushtype="text" style=";padding: 5px 26px 5px 5px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;display: inline-block;text-align: center;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;line-height: 1.75em;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);flex: 1 1 0%">附：指标体系及改版说明</section></section><section style="margin: 1.2em 0px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><section style=";padding: 5px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-image: linear-gradient(to right, rgb(255, 255, 255) 50%, rgb(248, 252, 254))"><section style=";padding: 1em;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(149, 214, 176)"><section style="margin: 10px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;display: flex"><section style="margin: 20px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 7px;height: 7px;border-radius: 100%;background: rgb(132, 200, 175);flex-shrink: 0;overflow: hidden"><br style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"/></section><section data-autoskip="1" style="margin: 15px 0px 0px 10px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);text-align: justify"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">1、城市房地产营商环境指标体系</strong></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><br style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"></p></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;display: flex"><section style="margin: 20px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 7px;height: 7px;border-radius: 100%;background: rgb(132, 200, 175);flex-shrink: 0;overflow: hidden"><br style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"/></section><section data-autoskip="1" style="margin: 15px 0px 0px 10px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);text-align: justify"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif">2、改版说明：适应行业变化需求，增加政务环境、盈利空间等指标维度</span></strong></p><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);line-height: 1.6em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;cursor: text;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%">自2012年以来，克而瑞研究中心发布的《城市房地产发展前景排行榜》已经连续发布了12年。伴随着行业发展变化，历年榜单测算指标与模型也有着对应性调整，在以发展规模主、兼顾周转速度和盈利风险的研究视角下，判断城市竞争力差异，为企业调整现有布局和城市进入提供决策参考。</span></section><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);line-height: 1.6em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;cursor: text;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%">在初期的2012-2015年，榜单包括“发展前景”和“发展风险”两个维度。自2015年行业规模进入快速发展期之后，“高周转”模式大行其道，在量价齐升的市场环境中，规模扩张带来的长期预期收益大大超过了个别项目的短期利润风险。为顺应行业发展需求，自2016年起，城市排行精简为“房地产发展前景”单一排名。2020年以后，针对行业发展节奏的加快，对于数据披露更为全面、及时的重点城市，指标模型进一步扩充了原始指标数量，并将年鉴数据更新至最新发布的公报数据。</span></section><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);line-height: 1.6em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;cursor: text;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%">随着近年来行业进入规模调整期，整体经营风险快速攀高，对于盈利“确定性”的评比，又再度成为了城市研究的重中之重。为此，《城市房地产发展前景排行》将再度优化为《城市房地产营商环境排行榜》，在参考以往发展风险排名的测算思路基础上，进一步丰富了指标体系，并重新梳理测评逻辑：</span></section><section style="margin: 24px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);line-height: 1.6em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;cursor: text;color: rgb(76, 76, 76);max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;cursor: text;font-size: 15px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%"><strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%">新增政务环境维度</strong>，重点考量反映主管部门调控能力与施政现状的相关指标。包括融资环境、政府对房地产行业关注度、房地产行业的经济地位、房地产市场管理等四方面。<strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%">将市场供求升级为投资风险</strong>。较以往的指标体系，进一步完善了对于盈利空间和周转速度的考量，并新增了二级指标“市场竞争”，考量企业和项目之间的竞争。<strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%">将原先的购买能力并入市场容量</strong>，精简指标体系。考虑到当前各城市有大量住房需求由二手房市场承接，与往年指标体系相比，增加了人均房屋交易量占比指标。<strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%">将原先的外部因素优化为城市基本面</strong>。参考北大、武汉大学相关研究成果，纳入城市全行业的营商环境测评指标。</span></span></section><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></h3></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 24px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: justify;text-wrap: wrap;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;text-align: right;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">排版丨Jenny<br style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"/></span></p><p><br/></p><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: justify;text-wrap: wrap;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.54px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><section style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;letter-spacing: 0.54px;font-family: 微软雅黑"><section style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;border-width: 0px"><section style="margin: 10px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;text-align: center;line-height: 2em"><section style=";padding: 5px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;border-radius: 0px;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(220, 221, 221);display: inline-block;box-shadow: rgb(160, 160, 160) 0px 0px 3px"><section style=";padding: 0px 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(131, 129, 129);font-size: 14px"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;letter-spacing: 2px"><strong style=";padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">本文完</strong></span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><p><br/></p><p><br/></p><link rel="stylesheet" href="//www.fqlook.cn/source/plugin/wcn_editor/public/wcn_editor_fit.css?v134_J03" id="wcn_editor_css"/> 希望发展越来越好，
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