房地产市场或于年中迎来市场底
<section data-role="paragraph"><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">宏观环境下，全球经济格局的压力、国家间政治冲突的压力，以及国内的疫情反复压力，相继传导并释放至房地产行业，令行业持续承压。</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">2月新增居民中长期贷款出现负值曾引发市场对房地产销售的担忧，1-2月房地产销售和投资数据间的背离进一步引发市场疑虑。</span><span style="color: #0070C0;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">今年要实现5.5%左右的经济增速，离不开房地产市场的稳定。</span></strong></span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">那么当前房地产形式如何？房地产何时见底？看清房地产的本质，看清房地产调控的本质，是眼下地产人需要理清的思路。</span></p></section><p><br/></p><section data-role="title" data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="111276"><section style="margin: 20px auto;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;"><section><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-end;align-items: flex-end;"><section style="box-sizing:border-box;width: 15px;"><img data-ratio="1" src="https://www.fqlook.cn/plugin.php?id=wcn_editor:wx_img&url=https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/vnT4hbaLoX52vS48AVEmzD0VOcopwhTprsRGxnehfjuNTWqyEXk35sr7J12hTKiacyFM54nWfCAa1BO2q5ArQFg/0?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="19" data-width="100%" style="box-sizing: border-box;vertical-align: inherit;width: 100%;display: block;"/></section></section><section style="padding-right: 9px;padding-left: 3px;margin-top: -7px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section data-brushtype="text" style="border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(160, 204, 241);height: 35px;color: rgb(56, 165, 251);padding-right: 15px;padding-left: 15px;line-height: 35px;box-sizing: border-box;" hm_fix="319:488"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><strong>房地产形势依然严峻</strong></span></section></section><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-start;margin-top: -2px;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 15px;height: 4px;background-color: rgb(56, 165, 251);overflow: hidden;"><br/></section></section></section></section></section></section><p><br/></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">数据显示，三月楼市整体成交上行，环比上升，但与去年同期相比，成交数据仍为下滑状态。3月楼市成交开始回暖，不过土地市场成交面积同环比尚未改善。</span></p><p><br/></p><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="33" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;widows: 1;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;display: inline-block;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin: 10px auto;padding-right: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 32px;vertical-align: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 28px;color: rgb(239, 112, 96);border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(239, 112, 96);border-top-color: rgb(239, 112, 96);border-right-color: rgb(239, 112, 96);border-left-color: rgb(239, 112, 96);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span placeholder="1" data-original-title="" title="" data-num="4" style="margin-right: 8px;padding: 4px 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;border-radius: 80% 100% 90% 20%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);display: block;float: left;line-height: 20px;background-color: rgb(239, 112, 96);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">1</span></strong><span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: normal;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span data-brushtype="text" hm_fix="197:257" style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">居民观望情绪仍浓，房地产销售总量下滑</span></strong></span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span data-brushtype="text" hm_fix="197:257" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></span></strong></span></p></section><p><br/></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">CRIC数据显示，一季度，百强房企操盘金额为14381.9亿元，同比大降47%，全口径销售金额为16279.2亿元，同比降幅也达到了47.1%，业绩表现不及2020年的同期水平。</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">其中，一季度有超过8成百强房企累计业绩同比下降，近4成房企的降幅超过50%。</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">3月单月业绩表现也印证了房地产行业持续的下行压力。</span><span style="color: #0070C0;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">百强房企单月销售操盘金额仅5115.4亿元，环比虽增长27.4%，</span></strong></span><span style="color: #0070C0;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">但增幅明显低于往年同期。</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">百强房企销售业绩同比降幅达到52.7%，较1、2两月进一步扩大，其中较2月降幅扩大5.5个百分点；相比1月业绩规模降低2.6%。</span></p><p style="text-align:center;vertical-align: inherit;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: normal;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">图：2022年1-3月百强房企单月业绩表现及同比变动（亿元）</span></strong></p><p style="vertical-align: inherit; text-align: center;"></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">全国商品住宅销售均价10141元/平，目前价格已处在持续见底回升过程中。市场信心尚在恢复，政策提振销售仍需一定时间。</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="color: #0070C0;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">结构上，房地产销售出现三大分化：商业地产</span></strong></span><span style="color: #0070C0;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">好于住宅，中小房企好于大型房企，一线城市好于二三四线城市。</span></strong></span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">当前房地产市场低迷的主要原因在于居民购房意愿不足。居民收入增速放缓，预防性储蓄上升。购房贷款需要稳定的现金流作为还款保障，然而疫情以来居民收入增速与经济增速同步放缓，2021年全国居民人均可支配收入两年平均增长6.9%，显著低于2019年的8.9%。</span><span style="color: #0070C0;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">居民行为趋于避险化，平均消费倾向下降，预防性储蓄上升。</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">2021年居民平均消费倾向回升至68.6%，但仍低于2019年的70.1%。相应地，居民的购房决策也会更加谨慎。此外，楼市遇冷和期房交付风险也使购房者保持观望态度。</span></p><p><br/></p><section data-role="paragraph"></section><section data-role="paragraph"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="33" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;widows: 1;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;display: inline-block;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin: 10px auto;padding-right: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 32px;vertical-align: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 28px;color: rgb(239, 112, 96);border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(239, 112, 96);border-top-color: rgb(239, 112, 96);border-right-color: rgb(239, 112, 96);border-left-color: rgb(239, 112, 96);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span placeholder="1" data-original-title="" title="" data-num="4" style="margin-right: 8px;padding: 4px 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;border-radius: 80% 100% 90% 20%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);display: block;float: left;line-height: 20px;background-color: rgb(239, 112, 96);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">2</span></strong><span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: normal;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span data-brushtype="text" hm_fix="197:257" style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">房企拿地保持谨慎，房地产投资仍较低迷</span></strong></span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span data-brushtype="text" hm_fix="197:257" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></span></strong></span></p></section><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">2022年一季度，受重点城市“两集中”供地批次增加、房地产市场下行等因素影响，全国300城住宅用地供求规模同比明显缩量，成交楼面价为2019年以来首次季度同比下滑。</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">据中指数据初步统计，2022年一季度，全国300城住宅用地推出1.1亿平方米，同比下降42.0%，绝对规模为2013年以来同期最低水平；住宅用地成交0.7亿平方米，同比下降59.6%；成交楼面均价为4621元/平方米，同比下降6.4%；成交溢价率仅为4.4%。</span></p><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;outline-offset: 2px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.75em;text-align: center;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;outline: 0px;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-inline-size: 100%;outline: 0px;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">图：2022年一季度全国300城各线城市住宅用地推出和成交相关指标同比变化</strong></span></section><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></section><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;outline: 0px;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">注：推出面积按公告时间统计，为规划建筑面积，下同。一线城市成交楼面价同比数据剔除了上海动迁安置房、租赁住房用地数据。</span></section><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: normal;text-align: right;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;outline: 0px;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">数据来源：：中指数据CREIS</span></section><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">受房地产市场下行及房企资金压力较大等因素影响，一季度房企拿地热情不足，叠加地方政府推地力度明显放缓，土地市场持续低温运行。</span></p></section><p><br/></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">房企经营更加谨慎。一是去年部分房企爆发债务风险，盲目加杠杆的模式得到一定反思。二是房企资金链仍较紧张，据CRIC不完全统计，2022年一季度行业100家典型房企的融资规模同比大幅下降52.5%，特别是2-3月境外融资近乎“停滞”。2022年至今，有约75%的房企融资规模同比减少，其中有近4成企业同比降幅超过50%。银行对房企贷款仍较审慎，房地产销售低迷也影响房企回款。</span></p><p><br/></p><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align:center;vertical-align: inherit;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: normal;font-family: -apple-system, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">图：2021年至2022年3月房企发债总量及境外债占比（亿元）</span></strong><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="text-align:center;vertical-align: inherit;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="text-align:left;vertical-align: inherit;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;caret-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">注：发债仅指境内外发行的各类债券、优先票据、中期票据等，不包含各类贷款等</span><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></p><p style="text-align:right;vertical-align: inherit;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;caret-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">数据来源：CRIC、企业公告</span></p></section><section data-role="paragraph"></section><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="33" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;widows: 1;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;display: inline-block;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin: 10px auto;padding-right: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 32px;vertical-align: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 28px;color: rgb(239, 112, 96);border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(239, 112, 96);border-top-color: rgb(239, 112, 96);border-right-color: rgb(239, 112, 96);border-left-color: rgb(239, 112, 96);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span placeholder="1" data-original-title="" title="" data-num="4" style="margin-right: 8px;padding: 4px 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;border-radius: 80% 100% 90% 20%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);display: block;float: left;line-height: 20px;background-color: rgb(239, 112, 96);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">3</span></strong><span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: normal;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span data-brushtype="text" hm_fix="197:257" style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">房企债务风险未充分释放，上半年集中到期</span></strong></span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span data-brushtype="text" hm_fix="197:257" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></span></strong></span></p></section><p><br/></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">据统计，今年上半年有170家房企债券到期，合计约1809亿元；刚刚到来的3月则是房企摘取集中到期月份，合计约589亿元。克而瑞研究中心更指出，</span><span style="color: #0070C0;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">今年3月、4月、6月，房企的单月到期债务规模均逾600亿元。</span></strong></span></p><p style="vertical-align: inherit; text-align: center;"></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">另据安信证券统计显示，2022年全年共有6806.2亿元地产债到期，每个季度的到期规模分别为1741.2亿元、1785.3亿元、2037.3亿元、1242.4亿元，前三季度到期压力明显较大。</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">融资流入保持收紧态势的同时，房企销售回款状态依然低迷。当前我国房企销售以期房为主，占比仍超85%。若房企经营出现问题，购房者可能遭遇无法收房、同时还需继续偿还房贷的巨大风险。所以各个地方政府纷纷出来预售资金监管政策，防止房企将民众的购房款挪作他用，所以房企不封顶销售的预售款都在监管账户里，拿不出来还债。</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">房企面临的债务危机叠加知名房企发生实质性违约对房地产行业造成的信任危机，导致购房者对新房交付仍有担忧，观望情绪较浓。</span></p><p><br/></p><section data-role="title" data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="111276"><section style="margin: 20px auto;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;"><section><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-end;align-items: flex-end;"><section style="box-sizing:border-box;width: 15px;"><img data-ratio="1" src="https://www.fqlook.cn/plugin.php?id=wcn_editor:wx_img&url=https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/vnT4hbaLoX52vS48AVEmzD0VOcopwhTprsRGxnehfjuNTWqyEXk35sr7J12hTKiacyFM54nWfCAa1BO2q5ArQFg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="19" data-width="100%" style="box-sizing: border-box;vertical-align: inherit;width: 100%;display: block;"/></section></section><section style="padding-right: 9px;padding-left: 3px;margin-top: -7px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section data-brushtype="text" style="border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(160, 204, 241);height: 35px;color: rgb(56, 165, 251);padding-right: 15px;padding-left: 15px;line-height: 35px;box-sizing: border-box;" hm_fix="319:488"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><strong>地产行业环境随着行业利好稳步释放</strong></span></section></section><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-start;margin-top: -2px;"><section style="box-sizing:border-box;width: 15px;height: 4px;background-color: #38a5fb;overflow: hidden;"><br/></section></section></section></section></section></section><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="33" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;widows: 1;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;display: inline-block;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin: 10px auto;padding-right: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 32px;vertical-align: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 28px;color: rgb(239, 112, 96);border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(239, 112, 96);border-top-color: rgb(239, 112, 96);border-right-color: rgb(239, 112, 96);border-left-color: rgb(239, 112, 96);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span placeholder="1" data-original-title="" title="" data-num="4" style="margin-right: 8px;padding: 4px 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;border-radius: 80% 100% 90% 20%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);display: block;float: left;line-height: 20px;background-color: rgb(239, 112, 96);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">1</span></strong><span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: normal;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span data-brushtype="text" hm_fix="197:257" style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">中央密集稳地产，地方多样松绑托市</span></strong></span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span data-brushtype="text" hm_fix="197:257" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></span></strong></span></p></section><p><br/></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">2022年一季度，中央多部委密集表态稳地产，财政部明确今年内不具备扩大房地产税改革试点城市的条件，两会定调探索行业新发展模式，支持新市民等三类购房需求。房企融资、预售资金监管适度松绑，并购贷不计入“三道红线”、保障性租赁住房贷款不计入“两道红线”、全国性商品房预售资金监督管理办法出台。</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">居民按揭贷款政策边际改善，各地放宽公积金贷款、下调首付比例、局部放松限贷、下调房贷利率。多城出台新政刺激购房需求，重点涉及松绑限购、取消限售、发布购房补贴、棚改货币化安置等。</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="color: #0070C0;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">房企融资、预售资金监管适度松绑，纠偏过严的预售资金监管政策，利好央企、国企和优质民企。</span></strong></span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">2021年12月，央行及银保监会出台了《关于做好重点房地产企业风险处置项目并购金融服务的通知》，鼓励银行稳妥有序开展并购贷款业务，重点支持优质的房地产企业兼并收购出险和困难的大型房地产企业的优质项目，并购贷不计入三道红线。今年3月16日，银保监会召开专题会议再次传达要鼓励支持房企的收并购融资，促进房地产业良性循环和健康发展的信息。</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">目前，已有多家房企发行了并购债，多家优质房企被银行授予并购融资额度，多家全国性金融资产管理公司也加入发债募集资金化解房地产行业风险之列。据不完全统计，开年以来，各种渠道的房地产并购类融资已超1500亿元。</span></p><p><br/></p><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="33" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;widows: 1;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;display: inline-block;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin: 10px auto;padding-right: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 32px;vertical-align: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 28px;color: rgb(239, 112, 96);border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(239, 112, 96);border-top-color: rgb(239, 112, 96);border-right-color: rgb(239, 112, 96);border-left-color: rgb(239, 112, 96);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span placeholder="1" data-original-title="" title="" data-num="4" style="margin-right: 8px;padding: 4px 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;border-radius: 80% 100% 90% 20%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);display: block;float: left;line-height: 20px;background-color: rgb(239, 112, 96);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">2</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span data-brushtype="text" hm_fix="197:257" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">预计市场短期仍将调整，</span></strong></span><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.5px;caret-color: red;outline-style: initial;max-width: 100%;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><span data-brushtype="text" hm_fix="197:257" style="outline-style: initial;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;">或于年中迎来“市场底”</span></strong></span><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.5px;caret-color: red;outline-style: initial;max-width: 100%;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><span data-brushtype="text" hm_fix="197:257" style="outline-style: initial;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;"></span></strong></p></section><p><br/></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">关于房地产行业是否触底的标准，不同人有不同的角度。房地产行业对应融资端、供给端与需求端，同时有政策贯穿始终，政策放松的力度、房地产企业出险程度一度被市场认为是行业见底的标志。</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">而回顾前两轮房地产调控放松周期，我们可以发现：1）放宽限购限贷和下调房贷利率等需求端政策，提振市场的效果较强，本轮政策放松力度预计还将进一步增强。2）房贷利率是地产销售的领先指标，商品房销售面积增速转正一般滞后个人住房贷款平均利率阶段性高点6-9个月左右。</span><span style="color: #0070C0;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">因而当前房地产“市场底”仍未显现，预计本轮销售数据将于年中左右恢复正增长。</span></strong></span></p><p style="vertical-align: inherit; text-align: center;"></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">通过对近两轮调控政策的比较，放宽限购限贷以及下调房贷利率能有效提振需求端。据不完全统计，目前已有11个城市下调了住房贷款利率、10个城市降低了首付比、4个城市放开了落户限制，但大多集中在二三线承压城市，与前两轮的政策力度相比，本轮政策力度将会进一步加强。</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">据前两轮经验，商品房销售面积增速转正大约滞后个人住房贷款平均利率阶段性高点6-9个月左右。若按照之前从政策端传导到需求端的时间跨度测算，本轮房地产行业维稳政策的开始以及房贷利率高点在去年10月，预计销售数据大致于年中开始回暖。但考虑到本轮周期面临疫情反弹和房企债务风险的冲击，市场信心恢复或需要更长时间，需要政策进一步呵护。</span></p><p><br/></p><section data-role="title" data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="111276"><section style="margin: 20px auto;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;"><section><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-end;align-items: flex-end;"><section style="box-sizing:border-box;width: 15px;"><img data-ratio="1" src="https://www.fqlook.cn/plugin.php?id=wcn_editor:wx_img&url=https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/vnT4hbaLoX52vS48AVEmzD0VOcopwhTprsRGxnehfjuNTWqyEXk35sr7J12hTKiacyFM54nWfCAa1BO2q5ArQFg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="19" data-width="100%" style="box-sizing: border-box;vertical-align: inherit;width: 100%;display: block;"/></section></section><section style="padding-right: 9px;padding-left: 3px;margin-top: -7px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section data-brushtype="text" style="border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(160, 204, 241);height: 35px;color: rgb(56, 165, 251);padding-right: 15px;padding-left: 15px;line-height: 35px;box-sizing: border-box;" hm_fix="319:488"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><strong>地产稳才能经济稳</strong></span></section></section><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-start;margin-top: -2px;"><section style="box-sizing:border-box;width: 15px;height: 4px;background-color: #38a5fb;overflow: hidden;"><br/></section></section></section></section></section></section><p><br/></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">中国经济的三架马车，出口、消费和投资，前两个面临的困难比较多，所以还是要靠投资，投资的三大领域，制造业、地产、基建，都是重点方向。</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">今年要实现5.5%的GDP增长目标难度肯定非常大，然而如今一季度的很多宏观数据虽然异常强势，但在疫情反复、外循环经济承压、供应链紧张等一系列复杂环境下，今年依然充满挑战。</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">当前房地产形势依然严峻，居民、房企等微观主体信心不足，严重拖累经济有效恢复。</span><span style="color: #0070C0;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">政府需多措并举稳地价、稳房价、稳预期，促进房地产业良性循环和健康发展。</span></strong></span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="color: #0070C0;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">第一，适当下调房贷利率，降低居民购房成本。</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">房贷利率都能直接影响购房者的购房意愿，近两年由于疫情导致国外发达国家经济增速放缓，压力增加，贷款利率下调之后，购房的后续成本大大降低。</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="color: #0070C0;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">第二，地方政府要因城施策，满足购房者合理住房需求。</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">部分压力较大的城市已经适当放宽限购、取消“认房又认贷”政策，同时开年以来各地因城施策，降低首付比例、提高公积金贷款额度、给予购房补贴、为人才购房提供支持等利好政策不断实施。</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="color: #0070C0;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">第三，满足房企正常融资需求，防范化解房企债务风险。</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">针对房企，需要防范和化解可能出现的问题和风险，但是合理的正常的融资需求要得到满足，目前在相关缓解房企资金政策出台和实施将有助于缓释市场风险，从而提振和修复市场信心。</span></p><p style="vertical-align:inherit;"><span style="color: #0070C0;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">第四，应继续稳妥实施房地产长效机制，同时探索新的发展模式。</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">当前，保障性租赁住房、长租房、老旧小区改造、城市更新等都呈现良好发展态势，深度调整中的房地产行业有望从这些领域中找到新的发展方向。</span></p><p><br/></p><section data-role="paragraph"><section class="mp_profile_iframe_wrp"><mpprofile class="js_uneditable custom_select_card mp_profile_iframe" data-pluginname="mpprofile" data-id="MzIyOTk2Mjk1Nw==" data-headimg="https://www.fqlook.cn/plugin.php?id=wcn_editor:wx_img&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/YCvl9QuHd1OLfPEjLOtGu6IffEYBqbE3z0mt8UMHktzRCpSDJnUHCpq6icpQs5Xj3JlhrS5gLq97vWKo6aXBFhg/0?wx_fmt=png" data-nickname="福州市房地产业协会" data-alias="fzsfdcyxh" data-signature="共同关注福州市房地产发展！" data-from="0"></mpprofile></section><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br/></p></section></section></section></section></section><p><br/></p><link rel="stylesheet" href="//www.fqlook.cn/source/plugin/wcn_editor/public/wcn_editor_fit.css?v134_T96" id="wcn_editor_css"/> 是啊房子实在是太贵啦 房地产形势相当严峻 还是买不起房啊 利率调来调去不是为百姓谋幸福，制定出台政策，改来改去算着百姓口袋钱掏空，年年调整，年年房价上涨，因疫情才刹住，一贴止。没有因为疫情影响我的收入。 现在买房有优惠吗 什么时候才能大葱价啊！！ 马云说的也不靠谱！！ 房价会下降吗？ 现在的福清房价平均多少
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